2014-15 NHL Predictions

2014-15 NHL Predictions

Hockey is back. So that means it’s time for me to make some wild guesses as to how the regular season will play out over the next 82 games. Maybe even make a way-too-early Stanley Cup prediction that will surely not come true, if only because I guessed it.

*denotes playoff team

Western Conference

east2

Central Division

st-louis-blues-logo1. *St. Louis Blues: Looking at that roster, it is just so deep. Their top-6 are among the best in the league, and that D is impressive. I think Elliott and Allen can get it done in net.

2. *Chicago Blackhawks: They are going to be Cup favorites again. Another incredibly deep team. No reason to think there is any drop off in them this season.

3. *Dallas Stars: Ok, I’ll bite. All offense, very little D. But that can work in the regular season.

4. *Colorado Avalanche: I don’t think the drop off will be as huge as the advanced stats say. This is still a young, fast, exciting team.

5. *Minnesota Wild: Made some good moves. Still a lot of questions in net, where not much has been done to improve themselves. They seem doomed to always be battling for a playoff spot.

6. Nashville Predators: Same old, same old. Solid D. No offense. I don’t know that James Neal makes that big a difference without Malkin on his line. There will be some good stories here, like a possible Ribeiro comeback, but that’s about it.

7. Winnipeg Jets: Still, nothing has been done to improve this team. They need to blow it up, if their GM realized that making trades was allowed. Horrible goaltending will sink the potential of the forwards and young D again.

Pacific Division

1. *Anaheim Ducks: Deep, big, strong. A regular season beast of a team again, even with the changes in net.

kings2. *Los Angeles Kings: The champs will coast through the regular season again, waiting to make their move in the playoffs, as usual.

3. *San Jose Sharks: Despite the weird off-season, they are still a strong and deep team. There is absolutely enough there to be a good regular season team again.

4. Vancouver Canucks: I hated the Ryan Miller signing, but this team will bounce back a little bit after the debacle that was the last year. Still not a ton there, and I feel this team needs some massive changes to get back into the race.

5. Phoenix Coyotes: Always underestimated. Strong D and goalies will carry them, but who knows who will score goals for them?

6. Edmonton Oilers: Blah, blah, blah, youth. They will be better, especially with actual NHL goalies on their roster this year, but there is too much ground to make up to be much of a threat in this scary conference.

7. Calgary Flames: They worked their butts off last year, and probably over-achieved. They will be in the running for Connor McDavid this year.

Eastern Conference

east

Atlantic Division

bruins1. *Boston Bruins: They remain the class of the East. Best goalie, best D, deepest forward crop.

2. *Tampa Bay Lightning: Another exciting team. Biggest question mark for me is in net. Is Bishop a one-year wonder?

3. *Montreal Canadiens: Mostly put them here because I don’t know who else I reasonably could. A decent team, but nothing special here, in my opinion.

4. Toronto Maple Leafs: Once they fire their terrible coach, they might be a decent team. Still, no playoffs.

5. Florida Panthers: I guess the only surprise pick so far. There is something going on here, and with a real goalie and a ton of youth, they could be pretty decent for once.

6. Detroit Red Wings: 25 years in the playoffs is a long time. The run ends this year. The forwards are either too old and frail, or too young and inexperienced.

7. Ottawa Senators: There just isn’t much to like here, except perhaps a nice bounceback year for both goalies.

8. Buffalo Sabres: I actually think they will be significantly better than last year. They are doing their rebuild right, and there is a lot to work with here, as they move forward.

Metropolitan Division

1. *Pittsburgh Penguins: I’m already going to pick another playoff collapse, but with two of the best players in the world, they will probably run away with this division.

Yup, I'm using the fisherman.
Yup, I’m using the fisherman.

2. *New York Islanders: Yup, you read that right. The Islanders. I feel they made a ton of improvements over the summer, and are ready to get back into the dance. I feel there is some serious potential on this team, and if Halak can be semi-competent in goal, they have a real shot at being a special team.

3. *New York Rangers: They lost a lot since the Cup finalists last year, but they will still be respectable. Especially since Lundqvist is still their goalie. That alone gets them in in this messy division.

4. *Columbus Blue Jackets: Quietly a respectable team again. They work hard, and have some skill and nice building blocks. Hopefully there isn’t too much of a drop off in net, or with their won’t be named training camp holdout forward. He needs to shake off the rust, and fast.

5. *Philadelphia Flyers: I really like a lot of the talent on this team. If someone like Giroux decides to play the whole season, I could see them finishing as high as third in this division.

6. New Jersey Devils: I don’t really get this team. But they will hang around for most of the year.

7. Washington Capitals: Where have you gone, Southeasy Division? Getting Trotz as a coach was the right move, but there are far too many gaps in this roster, and you have to wonder how long they will buy into his system.

8. Carolina Hurricanes: I predict that they will win the lottery, and sadly, will get McDavid. Which is too bad, because let’s be honest. Not many people care that Carolina even has a team. One of hockey’s most forgotten about franchises. They are going to be bad, I feel. Sabres bad.

Randoms, and Playoffs:

  • Hart Trophy (MVP): John Tavares, Islanders. It’s time. And with a better team around him, he will shine.
  • Art Ross (scoring): Sidney Crosby, Penguins. Betting against this is basically betting against him being healthy, or getting injured. He is by far the best in the game.
  • Norris (best D): Alex Pietrangelo, Blues. Changing of the guard. The potential is there. With a little more offense, he will be in the conversation again.
  • Vezina (best goalie): Tuuka Raask, Bruins. Such a good team. He benefits from that. Oh, and being really good as a goalie.
  • Stanley Cup Final: St. Louis vs. New York Islanders. Not only do I think the Isles will make it back to the playoffs this year and win their first series since 1993, I think they will go all the way to the finals, shocking absolutely everyone. This is how wide open, and weak, I feel the East is this year. There will be at least five teams from the West that could beat the Isles in a series, but that’s what happens when geography occurs. I will pick the Blues to do it this year.

NHL Free Agency: Some Thoughts

NHL Free Agency: Some Thoughts

Okay, now that the first few days of free agency are over and done with for another year, we can sit back and start to look objectively at some of the deals that were signed over the past few days. The free agent cupboard is now bare, and all that is left is some serviceable and semi-serviceable players who will probably be waiting all summer for a call to join a new team.

Some thoughts on the signings…

  • Paul Stasny to St. Louis: I like this one. Yes, $7M is too much for a player that is not even a #1 center, but he was the best free agent out there, so he got paid like it. The four years is nice, as it gives the Blues a chance to re-evaluate where they are fairly quickly, and not getting saddled with 7 years of someone who will probably end up being their second line center.
  • Brooks Orpik to Washington: Everybody has been piling on this signing as the worst one of the day. Five years for a 33-year-old is too much. The money is ridiculous. So, will I disagree, and take the other side? Nope. This is a bad deal, and quickly will be one that the Capitals regret.
  • Ryan Miller to Vancouver: Don’t like this one at all. Miller is showing his age, and demonstrated in St. Louis that he doesn’t really have the ability to help a team out over the hump anymore. Sure, he put up good numbers in Buffalo last year, but that means very little when the team was so bad. How does he help Vancouver? He is nearing the end of his career, and the Canucks are on a downward spiral. They are maybe the 8th or 9th best team in the conference, and I don’t see Miller making them any better to push them into the playoffs. Eddie Lack has similar numbers, and by bringing in Miller, they are pushing Jakob Markstrom out of the organization, which is a mistake, since he has plenty of untapped potential.

NHL: Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers

  • Spezza and Hemsky to Dallas: Sure, Spezza arrived to the Stars via trade, but I’ll still count it. This is a good add for Dallas, even if they only get one year of Spezza before I could see him bolting for the West coast. But it definitely makes that team dangerous looking on paper, doesn’t it? This pair could have a really nice year since most teams will have to focus on shutting down Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin first. Although it doesn’t help their defensive liabilities at all, the Stars just got a whole lot scarier.
  • Benoit Pouliot to Edmonton: People are praising this as a win for people who love advanced statistics. And maybe it is a step in the right direction for the sad sack Oilers, who have done little aside from make poor decisions over the past few years. But my question revolves around Pouliot being able to put points on the board. Sure, his possession numbers are nice, but does that translate to success on the ice? He could be a decent addition to the third line, however. And yes, that is a lot of money to give a third liner.
  • Martin Brodeur to Nobody: I like this move. He is done. Wanting to move on from New Jersey is a huge mistake, and he should just put in one more year as a backup to Cory Schneider if he wants to keep playing. Yes, he is a legend, but the longer he plays, and if he switches teams, that legend will continue to be tarnished. Ask Mike Modano how his time in Detroit went to end his career? Or if he wishes that he just hung it up as a member of the Stars.
  • Christian Erhoff to Pittsburgh: Maybe the signing of the day, getting him for only $4M. I would have looked at signing him to a three-year deal, but this is a good chance at having him show the league what he still has left, and that was not completely sucked out of him from being in Buffalo for a couple of years.
  • Matt Niskanen to Washington: The only question that needs to be asked is if Niskanen can continue to put up points without guys like Crosby, Malkin, and Neal on the power play with him? Too many years given for one good season.

There were a lot of signings to get the whole thing started, which makes the negotiating window prior to free agency a nice idea. It makes for more interesting television when there are actually things to report, and the deals came in fast and furious over the first few hours of coverage. TSN must have been thanking their lucky stars, after a run of uneventful trade deadline days, and draft days.

Some teams made themselves a little bit better, and some of the signings were definite head scratchers, as they are every year. Of course, only time will tell if any difference will be made once the league resumes play in the fall.

NHL Playoff Predictions- Round 2

NHL Playoff Predictions- Round 2

I guess I did alright on my Round 1 guesses in the end, even though it looked bad for a while. I was right about the Kings, Wild, Penguins, Bruins, and Rangers. 5-3 overall. Not the best, but not the worst. I was dead on in choosing the number of games in a few of those as well. Overall, I’m pretty satisfied.

Here are my guesses for the second round of games, which begin tonight with Montreal facing off in Boston.

Montreal Canadiens vs. Boston Bruins

bruinsI already wrote a post about this one. I love the ancient rivalry here, and it should be some intense games once the series gets rolling. Surprisingly, the Habs had a winning record against the Bruins during the regular season, but the B’s look like a team on a mission. They are too tough and deep for the Canadiens, and should wear them down. I will give one game to Carey Price as a steal, and one for the rivalry.

Prediction: Bruins in 6

 

New York Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

rangersThat was a pretty ugly opening series for the Pens, not looking great as they dispatched the Blue Jackets. There are a lot of holes on this team, starting with the eternally shaky playoff goaltending from Marc Andre Fleury. He can’t be trusted, and that becomes more and more apparent with every passing game, series, and year. The Rangers are a solid, all-around team, and their biggest advantage is having Lundqvist in net. That is a major plus over the Pens. Pittsburgh has more up front talent, with the likes of Crosby, Malkin, Neal, and Kunitz, but it kind of stops there. They lack the depth that the Blueshirts can roll out line after line. The Rangers are a tough team, and they have the look of previous teams that have been successful in the playoffs.

Prediction: Rangers in 5

 

Los Angeles Kings vs. Anaheim Ducks

kingsIt’s not going to get any easier for the Kings, as they face another California rival in this series. The major question is how much they will have left after playing their hearts out in coming back from the seemingly insurmountable 0-3 game deficit to the Sharks. The Ducks were lucky to get past the upstart Dallas team, a series that I predicted the Stars would win. I just don’t love the Ducks top-heavy lineup. There isn’t a lot to be afraid of once that top line is on the bench. The trouble for most teams is that top line can eat them up. But, then again, most teams can’t roll Drew Doughty out for half a game. I like this match for the Kings.

Prediction: Kings in 6

 

Minnesota Wild vs. Chicago Blackhawks

chicagoThe Hawks surprised me in Round 1, showing plenty of everything in taking care of my Cup favorite Blues in 6 games. They are an incredibly complete team, with everything from elite scorers (Sharp, Kane, Toews), to solid defense that can chip in plenty on the offensive side as well (Keith, Seabrook), to goaltending that is solid, if not spectacular (Crawford). The Wild are happy to have defeated the Avalanche, and are now in a world of trouble now that Bryzgalov is back in the nets after another injury to Darcy Kuemper. They had better hope he is back soon, or this one could be over quickly. I would like to cheer for the Wild, and like the look of their team, but they really are no competition for the defending Champs.

Prediction: Blackhawks in 5

 

All right, let’s see how I do this round, and let the games begin!